Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Paderborn
PAD
Eintracht Frankfurt
SGE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn30%
Draw29%
Frankfurt42%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.38
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession52%
30%Territory41%
18%From set plays27%
0.06Chance quality0.14
5.4%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Frankfurt. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.