Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Mainz 05
MAI
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz18%
Draw22%
Bayern München61%
Expected goals
1.05 – 2.04
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–210.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession58%
43%Territory43%
11%From set plays16%
0.14Chance quality0.16
6.0%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.