Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Mainz 05
MAI
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz20%
Draw23%
Bayern München57%
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.92
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Mainz will not mind.
50%Possession71%
45%Territory59%
25%From set plays14%
0.11Chance quality0.14
5.4%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.