Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Freiburg
FRE
Union Berlin
UNI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg48%
Draw29%
Union Berlin23%
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.89
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Freiburg will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.
48%Possession36%
34%Territory33%
32%From set plays48%
0.10Chance quality0.13
3.5%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.