Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Freiburg
FRE
Union Berlin
UNI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg56%
Draw25%
Union Berlin19%
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.88
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession50%
43%Territory34%
23%From set plays70%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.