Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
1. FC Köln
FCK
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln27%
Draw26%
Leverkusen47%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.67
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Köln will not mind.
43%Possession65%
37%Territory51%
40%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.11
6.0%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.