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Bundesliga · Matchweek 9

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

Elversberg

ELV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dortmund68%
Draw20%
Elversberg12%

Expected goals

2.09 – 0.81

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1012.1%
  • 2012.1%
  • 219.8%
  • 119.2%
  • 308.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dortmund will have the ball; Elversberg will not mind.

50%Possession37%
37%Territory24%
10%From set plays3%
0.13Chance quality0.16
4.7%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Elversberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.