Bundesliga · Matchweek 9
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Elversberg
ELV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund68%
Draw20%
Elversberg12%
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 2–012.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Dortmund will have the ball; Elversberg will not mind.
50%Possession37%
37%Territory24%
10%From set plays3%
0.13Chance quality0.16
4.7%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Elversberg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.