Bundesliga · Matchweek 8
Elversberg
ELV
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Elversberg30%
Draw27%
Mainz43%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.51
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mainz will have the ball; Elversberg will not mind.
37%Possession50%
24%Territory45%
3%From set plays25%
0.16Chance quality0.11
4.0%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Elversberg, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.