Bundesliga · Matchweek 8
Eintracht Frankfurt
SGE
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Frankfurt56%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV19%
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.94
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession45%
41%Territory33%
27%From set plays20%
0.14Chance quality0.08
5.2%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Frankfurt, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.