Bundesliga · Matchweek 8
Bayern München
BAY
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München54%
Draw25%
Dortmund21%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.05
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Dortmund will not mind.
71%Possession50%
59%Territory37%
14%From set plays10%
0.14Chance quality0.13
4.0%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.