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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 8

Augsburg

AUG

Freiburg

FRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Augsburg31%
Draw28%
Freiburg41%

Expected goals

1.19 – 1.41

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–110.8%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Freiburg will have the ball; Augsburg will not mind.

42%Possession52%
32%Territory43%
16%From set plays23%
0.12Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.