Bundesliga · Matchweek 7
Paderborn
PAD
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn42%
Draw30%
Hamburger SV28%
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.99
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession45%
30%Territory33%
18%From set plays20%
0.06Chance quality0.08
5.4%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
This competition has no player data in the current snapshot, so there is nobody to name. Better than naming somebody anyway.