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Bundesliga · Matchweek 7

Hoffenheim

HOF

Bayer Leverkusen

LEV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hoffenheim32%
Draw26%
Leverkusen41%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.55

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.7%
  • 018.9%
  • 128.8%
  • 107.7%
  • 217.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Leverkusen will have the ball; Hoffenheim will not mind.

54%Possession65%
45%Territory51%
25%From set plays35%
0.12Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.