Bundesliga · Matchweek 7
Hoffenheim
HOF
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim32%
Draw26%
Leverkusen41%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.55
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Hoffenheim will not mind.
54%Possession65%
45%Territory51%
25%From set plays35%
0.12Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.