Bundesliga · Matchweek 7
Freiburg
FRE
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg23%
Draw25%
Bayern München52%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.70
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Freiburg will not mind.
52%Possession71%
43%Territory59%
23%From set plays14%
0.11Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.