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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 7

Augsburg

AUG

Union Berlin

UNI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Augsburg46%
Draw27%
Union Berlin27%

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.18

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 2–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Union Berlin will have the ball; Augsburg will not mind.

42%Possession50%
32%Territory34%
16%From set plays70%
0.12Chance quality0.09
5.5%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.