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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 6

Union Berlin

UNI

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union Berlin20%
Draw26%
Dortmund54%

Expected goals

0.91 – 1.60

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–113.5%
  • 1–111.8%
  • 0–210.1%
  • 1–29.6%
  • 0–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

50%Possession50%
34%Territory37%
70%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.2%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.