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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 6

Schalke 04

SCH

Mainz 05

MAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Schalke 0430%
Draw28%
Mainz43%

Expected goals

1.19 – 1.45

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–110.7%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mainz will have the ball; Schalke 04 will not mind.

34%Possession50%
28%Territory45%
25%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.8%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Schalke 04, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.