Bundesliga · Matchweek 6
Hamburger SV
HAM
VfB Stuttgart
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV25%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart49%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.66
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession52%
33%Territory42%
20%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.