Bundesliga · Matchweek 6
Elversberg
ELV
Augsburg
AUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Elversberg37%
Draw27%
Augsburg36%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.45
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
37%Possession42%
24%Territory32%
3%From set plays16%
0.16Chance quality0.12
4.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Elversberg, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.