Bundesliga · Matchweek 6
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen48%
Draw27%
Freiburg25%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.07
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Freiburg will not mind.
65%Possession52%
51%Territory43%
35%From set plays23%
0.11Chance quality0.11
3.7%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leverkusen, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.