Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
Paderborn
PAD
VfB Stuttgart
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn27%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart46%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.57
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession52%
30%Territory42%
18%From set plays27%
0.06Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.