Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
Mainz 05
MAI
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz31%
Draw28%
Leverkusen41%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.45
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Mainz will not mind.
50%Possession65%
45%Territory51%
25%From set plays35%
0.11Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.