Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
Hoffenheim
HOF
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim60%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV17%
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hoffenheim will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
54%Possession45%
45%Territory33%
25%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.3%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.