Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
1. FC Köln
FCK
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln51%
Draw26%
M'gladbach24%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.09
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession48%
37%Territory37%
40%From set plays40%
0.13Chance quality0.07
6.0%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for M'gladbach. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
M'gladbach
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.