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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

Augsburg

AUG

Bayern München

BAY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Augsburg15%
Draw20%
Bayern München66%

Expected goals

1.03 – 2.27

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–29.8%
  • 0–29.6%
  • 0–18.9%
  • 1–18.6%
  • 1–37.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bayern München will have the ball; Augsburg will not mind.

42%Possession71%
32%Territory59%
16%From set plays14%
0.12Chance quality0.14
5.5%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.