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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart29%
Draw27%
Dortmund44%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.56

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 1–07.7%
  • 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

VfB Stuttgart get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession50%
42%Territory37%
27%From set plays10%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.2%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.