Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Paderborn
PAD
Hoffenheim
HOF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn27%
Draw28%
Hoffenheim45%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.48
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession54%
30%Territory45%
18%From set plays25%
0.06Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.