Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Hamburger SV
HAM
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV30%
Draw28%
Köln42%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.43
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Köln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession43%
33%Territory37%
20%From set plays40%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.