Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Eintracht Frankfurt
SGE
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Frankfurt34%
Draw29%
Freiburg37%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.31
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
41%Territory43%
27%From set plays23%
0.14Chance quality0.11
5.2%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Frankfurt, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.