Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
M'gladbach29%
Draw28%
Mainz43%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.41
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession50%
37%Territory45%
40%From set plays25%
0.07Chance quality0.11
5.7%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for M'gladbach, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
M'gladbach
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.