Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Bayern München
BAY
Union Berlin
UNI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München78%
Draw14%
Union Berlin7%
Expected goals
2.68 – 0.77
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.7%
- 3–010.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.
71%Possession50%
59%Territory34%
14%From set plays70%
0.14Chance quality0.09
4.0%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.