Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen44%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig30%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.30
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession61%
51%Territory51%
35%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.12
3.7%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leverkusen, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.