LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 27
Castellón
CAS
Girona
GIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Castellón61%
Draw24%
Girona16%
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.84
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.4%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession50%
41%Territory38%
21%From set plays12%
0.14Chance quality0.11
3.2%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Castellón, 4 for Girona. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 130 matches, not the full season.