LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 26
Real Valladolid
REA
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Real Valladolid35%
Draw26%
Sporting Gijón39%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.55
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession51%
37%Territory39%
28%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Valladolid, 3 for Sporting Gijón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.