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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 26

Real Oviedo

OVI

Sabadell

SAB

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Oviedo44%
Draw27%
Sabadell30%

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.24

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession56%
44%Territory38%
35%From set plays35%
0.09Chance quality0.07
5.5%Directness7.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Oviedo, 3 for Sabadell. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.