LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 23
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Castellón
CAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sporting Gijón25%
Draw28%
Castellón47%
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.48
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.2%
- 0–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession57%
39%Territory42%
18%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.14
4.1%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Castellón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.