LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 23
Leganés
LEG
Real Valladolid
REA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leganés43%
Draw24%
Real Valladolid32%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.55
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession51%
36%Territory37%
16%From set plays28%
0.13Chance quality0.11
6.5%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leganés, 3 for Real Valladolid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.