LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 22
Real Valladolid
REA
AD Ceuta FC
ADC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Real Valladolid50%
Draw23%
AD Ceuta FC27%
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.50
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.5%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession57%
34%Territory41%
37%From set plays38%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.9%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Valladolid, 3 for AD Ceuta FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Real Valladolid
AD Ceuta FC
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.