LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 22
Real Oviedo
OVI
Almería
ALM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Real Oviedo33%
Draw24%
Almería43%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.78
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession45%
41%Territory26%
31%From set plays19%
0.08Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Real Oviedo, 3 for Almería. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 130 matches, not the full season.