LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 22
Las Palmas
LAS
Girona
GIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Las Palmas31%
Draw27%
Girona42%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.50
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession47%
34%Territory37%
12%From set plays12%
0.11Chance quality0.11
5.6%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Las Palmas, 3 for Girona. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.