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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 21

Sabadell

SAB

Real Valladolid

REA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sabadell40%
Draw27%
Real Valladolid33%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.32

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 1–09.4%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession51%
38%Territory37%
35%From set plays28%
0.07Chance quality0.11
7.1%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sabadell, 3 for Real Valladolid. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.