LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 21
Almería
ALM
Las Palmas
LAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Almería64%
Draw20%
Las Palmas16%
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.03
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession50%
26%Territory36%
19%From set plays12%
0.14Chance quality0.10
4.9%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Las Palmas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Las Palmas
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 129 matches, not the full season.