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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 20

Real Oviedo

OVI

Castellón

CAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Oviedo18%
Draw23%
Castellón59%

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.95

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–110.5%
  • 1–110.2%
  • 1–210.0%
  • 0–29.6%
  • 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession57%
44%Territory42%
35%From set plays23%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.5%Directness3.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Oviedo, 3 for Castellón. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.