LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 20
Mallorca
MLL
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mallorca39%
Draw28%
Sporting Gijón33%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.26
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession55%
39%Territory40%
24%From set plays27%
0.16Chance quality0.14
4.4%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mallorca, 3 for Sporting Gijón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sporting Gijón
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.