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LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 20

Las Palmas

LAS

Tenerife

TEN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Las Palmas46%
Draw28%
Tenerife26%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.05

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.6%
  • 1012.4%
  • 009.3%
  • 219.1%
  • 018.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession45%
43%Territory34%
39%From set plays41%
0.08Chance quality0.10
3.0%Directness9.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Las Palmas, 3 for Tenerife. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.