LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 20
Leganés
LEG
Celta Fortuna
CEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leganés53%
Draw25%
Celta Fortuna23%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.10
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession55%
35%Territory39%
5%From set plays11%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.1%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leganés, 3 for Celta Fortuna. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.