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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 19

Sporting Gijón

SPO

Leganés

LEG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sporting Gijón44%
Draw29%
Leganés27%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.04

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 1–012.7%
  • 0–010.2%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Sporting Gijón get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

55%Possession53%
40%Territory35%
27%From set plays5%
0.14Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness5.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Leganés. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.