LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 19
Sporting Gijón
SPO
Leganés
LEG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sporting Gijón52%
Draw25%
Leganés23%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.14
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession52%
39%Territory36%
18%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.13
4.1%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sporting Gijón, 3 for Leganés. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.