LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 19
Almería
ALM
Real Valladolid
REA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Almería55%
Draw22%
Real Valladolid23%
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.32
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–07.2%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession51%
26%Territory37%
19%From set plays28%
0.14Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Real Valladolid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 131 matches, not the full season.