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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 18

Real Valladolid

REA

Tenerife

TEN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Valladolid43%
Draw28%
Tenerife29%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.16

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–011.2%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.9%
  • 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession43%
41%Territory34%
24%From set plays37%
0.09Chance quality0.09
8.1%Directness9.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Valladolid, 3 for Tenerife. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Tenerife

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 130 matches, not the full season.