LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 18
Mallorca
MLL
Burgos CF
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mallorca38%
Draw28%
Burgos CF34%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.30
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession54%
39%Territory32%
24%From set plays10%
0.16Chance quality0.17
4.4%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mallorca, 3 for Burgos CF. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.