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LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 18

Almería

ALM

Albacete

ALB

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Almería56%
Draw22%
Albacete22%

Expected goals

2.06 – 1.25

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 219.7%
  • 119.6%
  • 108.2%
  • 207.8%
  • 316.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession47%
32%Territory39%
13%From set plays7%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Almería, 3 for Albacete. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.