LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 16
Mallorca
MLL
Castellón
CAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mallorca26%
Draw24%
Castellón50%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.82
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession60%
39%Territory46%
24%From set plays17%
0.16Chance quality0.15
4.4%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mallorca, 3 for Castellón. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.