Skip to content

LaLiga 2 · Matchweek 16

Mallorca

MLL

Castellón

CAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mallorca26%
Draw24%
Castellón50%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.82

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.6%
  • 129.5%
  • 018.6%
  • 027.1%
  • 216.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession60%
39%Territory46%
24%From set plays17%
0.16Chance quality0.15
4.4%Directness3.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mallorca, 3 for Castellón. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 55 matches, not the full season.